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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

I completely agree prostate cancer is over-treated, I just think its important to make sure people realize there is still is a decent subset of patients that NEED LOCAL treatment.

You quote studies in which participants are highly selected, but fail to consider how these patients came to be diagnosed. In order to find such asymptomatic patients, the general population has to be screened. When that is done, statistics tell us that the overall good achieved is matched by the harm done. In other words, to help the cohort you describe, you must harm an equal number of others. My statements addressed the general cohort of all men who might have prostate cancer.

It can be difficult to accept such statistical conclusions because they may seem counter-intuitive or even callous. But as Eliezer Yudkowsky once wrote to me: “I don’t think you understand what statistics mean. They are not a sort of weak extra argument that you weigh in addition to your much more reliable personal experience; statistics are a stronger, more reliable way of looking at the world that summarizes far more evidence than your personal experience, even though it just looks like a little number on paper while all that other experience weighs so heavy in your mind.”

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

I'm wondering how one could ethically perform randomized, double-blind surgeries. What would the placebo be?

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