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David Whitlock's avatar

If this analysis is correct, the likelihood of life on Mars now is pretty high.  Mars has had a habitable zone for 4.5 billion years.  If there is a 10% chance of life developing every 200 million years (the way it did on Earth), then the likelihood of life on Mars is about 1- (1-0.1)^(4.5/0.2) = 90%.  

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RobinHanson's avatar

It seems to be a certain sort of embedding that he claims is rare. This isn't my theory it is his - read him for more details.

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