Shoo Freethinkers
Five years ago I wrote:
On average people who support odd ideas are less desirable as associates, and less discriminating in which ideas they endorse. If people only endorsed odd ideas when they had new information suggesting such ideas were promising, we should be eager to hear of such news, and eager to associate with such people. But in fact the main task faced by those with good news on odd ideas is to distinguish themselves from freethinkers who just pretend to have such news. Contrary to their self-image, undiscriminating freethinkers are our main obstacle to innovation. (more)
While giving a talk today on futarchy, I noticed how often freethinker fans are an obstacle to my innovation in particular. Mentally sloppy freethinkers tend to be attracted to radical proposals, just because such proposals are radical. They don’t focus much on the detailed arguments, but instead substitute simple arguments based on broad crude analogies, more suited to their style of thinking. And they usually make sure to insinuate that opposition to the idea is mainly from excess conformity or entrenched interests. Others hear such sloppy arguments, reject them, and then reject the idea as well.
For example, some say they like prediction markets because such things are markets, and all markets are good. This of course tempts others to reject them as based on knee-jerk free-market ideology. Some say they like prediction markets because they emphasize the wisdom of crowds, too long slighted by self-serving over-rated elite experts. Which elicits rejections from those who know just how often experts know better than crowds. Today someone even said futarchy was good because it is just like cost benefit analysis, which is obviously good.
Most big changes are bad ideas. So if a big change is a good idea, it must be because of some rather specific detailed reasons. When I make a radical proposal, I offer such specific detailed reasons in support, and those are the reasons I want skeptics to consider. For example, I argue for the information aggregation advantages of subsidized speculative markets, not for all possible advantages of all possible markets.
So when sloppy thinkers, eager to affirm their liberality by supporting radical proposals, latch on to my idea, and then substitute their own arguments based on vague analogies, they get in my way. Others see their support, and their sloppy thinking, and naturally want to distance themselves from the whole thing. Yes indeed, undiscriminating freethinkers are one of our main barriers to innovation.
utarchy is a form of government proposed by economist Robin Hanson, in which elected officials define measures of national welfare and prediction markets are used to determine which policies will have the most positive effect.[1] That is socialism, communism or fascism. Government managing the economy, or market is nothing but socialism and fascism.
Not sure what a non sequitur exactly is, but I think I can agre that while not necessarily incorrect this may be a rethorical license or simply an intuitive claim, not exactly measurable with which I ,also intuitively, tend to disagree, in short there is good share of both and probably many bad changes were due to failure to address the overall spiritual disposition of men toward exploitation, that led to a bad use of new technology.I'll stop here as the scope is so large about this subject, that I'm getting sloppy, and that sentence is so vague that I doubt I'm answering that very concept of big changes - bad ideas controversy.;)The second sentence is probably an assumed consequence, with doubting formula, of his first sentence, meaning that as there are so many bad new ideas, according to him, there is a justified skepticism and a sort of protection against so many bad new ideas, therefore demanting a damn good scientific demonstration of its goodness :D.The second phrase taken alone, obviously would be patently logically flawed, as good idea is good regardless of how it's explained. Obviously this given the ease and simplicity of use of the idea, otherwise the explanation is vital for the idea to be working right.