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Christian Kleineidam's avatar

You have to pick a number and defend it!

No. http://meaningness.com/meta... and the comments provide a nice illustration of why that's not the case.

Picking probabilities and defending them is not the only paradigm for decision making. The fact that you can't think of other paradigms doesn't mean that they don't exist.

Nassim Taleb books also provide good explanations.

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Weaver's avatar

Whats the risk of global pandemic/ supervolcano / tsunaumi / nuclear war / micro black hole / rogue nanobots / Bee population failure / alien invasion / asteroid impact? You're not sure? Well, we should act! Its unreasonable to require p>0.99 to become serious about preventing the risk...

You can't use unknowability to fuel your pet risk aversion, because all manner of projects can be conjured into being on the same invocation of unknown risk. You have to pick a number and defend it!

Sigh. The best way to increase resilience is wealth.

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