This is exactly Caplan's point. People are more irrational when it's cheap.
It's not that it's worth doing more cognitive work when the stakes are high, it's that people *actually try* to get it right. From an Evolutionary Psychology viewpoint, it's not surprising.
One of my favorite tricks is to ask myself "Would you bet on that at thos…
This is exactly Caplan's point. People are more irrational when it's cheap.
It's not that it's worth doing more cognitive work when the stakes are high, it's that people *actually try* to get it right. From an Evolutionary Psychology viewpoint, it's not surprising.
One of my favorite tricks is to ask myself "Would you bet on that at those odds?". The answer should never be obvious (if it is, shift your odds such that it isn't), so if you catch yourself thinking "WOAH! I never said anything about *betting*!", then you've made a mistake. The goal is to give odds such that you're willing to bet on either side if someone calls you out (unless conditioning on their willingness to bet changes the odds significantly).
This is exactly Caplan's point. People are more irrational when it's cheap.
It's not that it's worth doing more cognitive work when the stakes are high, it's that people *actually try* to get it right. From an Evolutionary Psychology viewpoint, it's not surprising.
One of my favorite tricks is to ask myself "Would you bet on that at those odds?". The answer should never be obvious (if it is, shift your odds such that it isn't), so if you catch yourself thinking "WOAH! I never said anything about *betting*!", then you've made a mistake. The goal is to give odds such that you're willing to bet on either side if someone calls you out (unless conditioning on their willingness to bet changes the odds significantly).