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I don't think industrial society can exist without further innovation. Supplies chains are too complex, and things are always shifting, production without innovation is not possible. In order to keep our society going at even a reduced scale just requires too many engineers. If you have to train so many engineers you can't expect innovation not to happen. So I think society is more likely to colapse rapidly, or stay competent than to slowly decay or to hang on in a steady state.

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The innovation required to maintain capacity might not increase capacity.

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