Robin, it doesn't seem to me like you're setting "prediction markets" against the strongest alternatives if you put up a version of "consensus of experts" that you admit is a weakened representation: "we follow the analyses preferred by the most prestigious academics available", because you claim "academic experts are chosen primarily fo…
Robin, it doesn't seem to me like you're setting "prediction markets" against the strongest alternatives if you put up a version of "consensus of experts" that you admit is a weakened representation: "we follow the analyses preferred by the most prestigious academics available", because you claim "academic experts are chosen primarily for producing impressive analyses, and impressiveness is only somewhat related to accuracy and completeness".
For example, how about the consensus of experts chosen primarily for producing analysis that is most accurate?
Robin, it doesn't seem to me like you're setting "prediction markets" against the strongest alternatives if you put up a version of "consensus of experts" that you admit is a weakened representation: "we follow the analyses preferred by the most prestigious academics available", because you claim "academic experts are chosen primarily for producing impressive analyses, and impressiveness is only somewhat related to accuracy and completeness".
For example, how about the consensus of experts chosen primarily for producing analysis that is most accurate?