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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Not sure this sheds light but I'm reminded of the anecdote from "Surely You're Joking Mr. Feynman" in which IIRC Feynman ends up seated next to a royal family member at the Nobel dinner. Royal asks him what he does, Feynman says physics, she says "oh physics, no one knows anything about *that*" by way of dismissing the topic, and Feynman responds something like "on the contrary, people *do* know something about physics, which is precisely why people find it so difficult to discuss," earning Feynman a memorably icy royal glare..

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Stephen Diamond's avatar

For example, the most dramatic successes of prediction markets, i.e., where correct market forecasts most differ from official forecasts, are for project deadlines.

Seems you'd have to give one hell of a subsidy to get people to bet on project deadlines. It's bad news for prediction markets if the most useful applications involve the most boring topics.

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